The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has officially unveiled its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) in Abuja, providing nationwide projections on rainfall patterns, temperature trends, dry spells, and climate-related health risks such as malaria and meningitis.

The SCP document was presented by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), who disclosed that the length of the 2026 rainy season is expected to be normal across most parts of Nigeria.

According to NiMet:

  • February 23 is projected as the earliest onset of rainfall, expected in Bayelsa State.
  • Central states are likely to see rainfall onset between April 21 and May 15.
  • Most northern states are expected to begin their rainy season between June 18 and 23.

Cessation of rainfall is forecast to occur:

  • Around October 6 in the far northern states, including Sokoto State, Katsina State, Jigawa State and Yobe State.
  • Between October 14 and 20 across most northern areas.
  • From November 7 to December 1 in central and inland southern states.
  • For coastal states such as Lagos State and Delta, cessation may extend from October 9 through December 17.

Minister Keyamo cautioned that early rains in southern Nigeria should not be mistaken for the true onset of the rainy season, urging farmers and rainfall-dependent sectors to rely strictly on NiMet’s predicted onset dates or seek professional guidance.

The SCP highlights indicate:

  • Early onset in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba.
  • Late onset is expected in Borno.

A longer-than-normal rainy season is forecast for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba, while parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger may experience a shorter-than-normal season.

NiMet also projects:

  • Normal annual rainfall across most of Nigeria.
  • Above-normal rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory.
  • Below-normal rainfall in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun.

Between March and May, severe dry spells exceeding 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun, while moderate dry spells are expected across several southwest and south-south states.

NiMet further warned that during the June–July–August period, dry spells of up to 21 days could affect parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.

The Director-General of NiMet, Charles Anosike, said the agency is accelerating the rollout of digital climate advisory services in collaboration with local and international partners. He called on state governments to deepen partnerships so that SCP data can be downscaled and localized for more communities.

“There is still much ground to be covered. We want to be able to downscale the 2026 SCP information to more states than we did in previous years,” Anosike said.